Wholesale RV shipments are projected to decline 15.3% in 2026 before stabilizing at approximately 285,000 units in 2027, as softer consumer demand and economic uncertainty continue to weigh on the recreational vehicle industry, according to the Fall 2026 RV RoadSigns forecast prepared by ITR Economics for the RV Industry Association.
The forecast calls for approximately 290,000 wholesale shipments in 2026, within a projected range of 284,600 to 295,400 units, compared with 342,220 units shipped in 2025.
Shipments are expected to moderate their declines during the first half of 2027, with year-over-year quarterly growth returning in the second half.
The 2027 projection of 285,000 units falls within a range of 274,700 to 295,300 units, indicating a relatively flat year for wholesale shipments following the expected contraction in 2026.
“The latest RV RoadSigns forecast reflects the challenging economic environment facing consumers and the RV industry, while pointing toward a more stable market in 2027,” Craig Kirby, RV Industry Association president and CEO said, as reported by RVIA in RV RoadSigns Quarterly Forecast.
Kirby said persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, higher fuel prices and broader economic and geopolitical uncertainty have affected consumer confidence and purchasing power, particularly for larger discretionary purchases. Those pressures have contributed to weaker retail demand and more conservative ordering by RV dealers.
The forecast also points to inventory management as a factor in the industry’s expected stabilization. Retail registrations have outpaced wholesale shipments over the past 12 months, a trend the report identifies as evidence of disciplined inventory levels across the industry.
The alignment between retail registrations and wholesale shipments, combined with expectations for gradually improving economic conditions, is expected to provide a more stable foundation for the market in 2027 and position manufacturers and dealers to respond as consumer demand strengthens.
The RV Industry Association will also host a webinar with ITR Economics on Wednesday, Oct. 28, at 2 p.m. Eastern time to explain the Fall 2026 forecast.
