The Conference Board Employment Trends Index (ETI) was up in February and now stands at 119.18, up from 118.15 in January 2022, an upward revision, according to the think tank’s press release.
“The Employment Trends Index increased again in February, suggesting that robust job growth lies ahead,” said Frank Steemers, senior economist at The Conference Board. “So far in 2022, more than 1 million jobs have been gained. However, some moderation in job growth is likely in the months ahead—we are now further into the recovery and economic growth rates are projected to decelerate compared to an especially strong 2021. Still, with the labor market being short 2.1 million jobs, returning to pre-pandemic employment levels is likely in 2022.”
Steemers added: “Hiring and retention continue to pose major challenges, which we don’t expect to dissipate in the foreseeable future. The unemployment rate has already dropped below 4 percent and is expected to approach 3 percent by the end of 2022. In such a tight labor market, wage growth will likely remain elevated. In particular, workers in in-person services, such as restaurants, personal care, and hotels, are now benefitting from a tight labor market.”
Last month’s Employment Trends Index increase was propelled by positive contributions from seven of eight components. From the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance; Industrial Production; Job Openings; Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales; Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry; Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get”; and Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now.
When the index increases, employment is likely to increase as well, and vice versa. Moreover, the index indicates that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months. The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly.
The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include:
- Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get” (The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey)
- Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance (U.S. Department of Labor)
- Percentage of Firms With Positions Not Able to Fill Right Now (© National Federation of Independent Business Research Foundation)
- Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)
- Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers (BLS)
- Job Openings (BLS)
- Industrial Production (Federal Reserve Board)
- Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales (U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis)
The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm.
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org.
Imagine you’re at a party, and suddenly the Employment Trends Index hits the dance floor in February, busting some sweet moves for job growth. If you’re on the lookout for a job, dust off your job-hunting boots, ’cause exciting opportunities might be knocking at your door real soon!